Major oil exporters have agreed to raise production slightly to help ease soaring prices that have crippled consumers’ purchasing power.

More impressively, OPEC Plus, which consists of 13 OPEC and 10 non-OPEC nations, including the (in) famous Russia, plans to boost production by about 640,000 barrels per day, a 50% increase from 432,000 in 2021. An increase in the price of oil has been a driver of inflation in past months, and should OPEC ramp up production, oil supply will rise to meet demand, thus curbing inflation.

Two years ago, as COVID spread around the world and countries went into lockdown, the price of crude oil crashed because of a fall in its demand. OPEC+ members then agreed to slash production by 10 million barrels per day to help drive the price back up.

As lockdowns eased, the sudden spike in economic activity in 2021 put pressure on the demand for oil and various energy products. Also, early this year, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affected oil production. These factors have combined, driving the average price of crude to well over $110 (only about $70 in 2021).

Not yet. In fact, oil prices have rallied since the cartel agreed to ramp up production due to surging demand.

While western countries have imposed sanctions on Russian oil, the giants of Asia continue to demand it in huge quantities. China, which has been on lockdown for the better part of the year, has begun to ease restrictions and demand may grow to unexpected levels (China consumes a whopping 15% of the global oil supply). India, which witnessed an 8-year high in inflation last month, has also doubled down on its imports from Rosneft, an oil company in Russia. This may cause oil prices to hit $135 per barrel—a 2008 high.

Owing to the sanctions on its energy exports, there are concerns that Russia will see no sense in producing large barrels, much less increasing its quota. Due to the war, Russia has even struggled to catch up with its production quota in the past.

Only Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait currently have spare capacity that can be utilized to make up for the shortage. However, they may be reluctant to do that as more spare capacity being tapped now means less spare capacity left for an emergency in the future. Analysts suggest that OPEC+'s increase in output will be only about 170,000 barrels per day in the next month and 180,000 bpd in August. In conclusion, the world should brace up for much higher prices and, even worse, a recession.

Peter Obi picks a stellar running mate in person of Datti Baba-Ahmed

Still in the thick of the Election frenzy, the People’s candidate Peter Obi has selected his running mate 

.  The Professor of Philosophy and Pro-chancellor of Baze University, Datti Baba-Ahmed dropped out of the Kano Governorship bid for the People’s Democratic Party and joined the Labour Party. 

A proponent of a free-market and market-dictated exchange rate, Baba-Ahmed would be running for the position of Vice President for the Labour Party, while its contender, the All progressive congress, in which the current head of state is a member.

The Japanese Prime minister, Shinzo Abe is dead

In an event that shocked the world since the assassination of Haitian President 

, Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister was gunned down at a recent Political rally ahead of a regional election in Japan by the suspected assailant Tetsuya Yamagami, driven by the alleged hatred for the Unification Church and Abe’s affiliation to the Church the aggrieved Yamagami claimed to have left his Mother for Bankrupt.

Shinzo Abe was responsible for much of Japan’s defence and economic reforms following the rise in Political and military strength and influence of allied China and North Korea.

Boris Johnson resigns amidst mutiny within the Conservative party

Prime Minister of Britain, or former Prime Minister of Britain, 

 resigned from his position.  Following a flurry of resignations from Party members and a failed attempt to stem mutiny within the conservative Party, Boris Johnson resigned from the leadership position amidst a blitz of scandals, Economic headwinds and an energy crisis in the wake of the Russia-Ukrainian war. 

Following the resignation of the former Premier, there are many vying for the position of Prime Minister.  Whoever wins the position will be faced with the tall task of international diplomacy with European powers involved in the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, an energy crisis that threatens to exacerbate inflationary pressures, and a Brexit deal that will not leave West-minister on the back burner.

Archaeological evidence shows that the Igbo civilization of southern Nigeria dates as far back as 10,000 years ago with evidence showing that the Palaeolithic man settled in the Southern part of Nigeria in what is now known as Igbo land.

The story follows the Social and Economic divide as the Union of Arthdal enters into the Bronze age.  Legends are born, tribes enslaved and wars are fought and won.  It was released in the summer of 2019, with a budget of 54 billion won.   It is a great watch for Game of Throne and other Historic fiction genres and it is currently running on Netflix with a second season due in 2023.

“Only you can control your future.” — Dr. Seuss

Crude Prices are at all times high amidst the energy crisis, and the question is where does OPEC coming to plug the gap

Issue #71: Can OPEC stem the rising Crude Prices?

Artificial intelligence is the term used to describe the replication of human intellectual functions by computers, particularly computer systems. Examples of particular AI applications include speech recognition, expert systems, machine learning, and natural language processing.

 Artificial intelligence (AI) systems take in large amounts of labelled training data, which they then analyse to look for correlations and patterns before using these patterns to predict future states.  In the same way, a chatbot can learn to have realistic conversations with people by being fed examples of text chats, an image recognition program can learn to identify and characterize objects in photographs by looking at millions of examples.

 (AI) technologies and approaches are becoming more common in the banking industry as a result of the abundance of data available. On the basis of certain estimates, the amount spent globally on AI will double between 2020 and 2024, going from $50.1 billion in 2020 to more than 110 billion in 2024. It was estimated that by 2023, artificial intelligence technologies will save banks and other financial organizations $447 billion. 

The majority of banks (80%) are aware of the potential advantages of AI, but with COVID-19's sweeping effects on the finance sector and its push for more people to join the digital world, its significance has increased more than ever.

To better understand how AI is shaping the financial industry, here are some of the outlined major fields of the financial sector where artificial intelligence is having the biggest influence and adding the most value above conventional methods.

Credit scoring is one of the key uses of machine learning in the finance sector.  In contrast to earlier scoring systems, AI makes a quicker and more precise evaluation of a potential borrower using algorithms against the traditional methods that included human elements.

The ability for generating unbiased judgements is another benefit of AI-based scoring systems; there is no human bias, impacting the decision. Additionally, it might help those without a long credit history by enabling them to demonstrate their dependability and ability to repay the loan in any case.

 AI has a lot to offer in terms of automation. The efficiency of repetitive, time-consuming tasks that were previously managed by staff can be greatly improved by using advanced

 (OCR); digitizing documents, processing forms, or extracting pertinent information from documents are a few examples. 

 process, many financial institutions either use specialized software or develop in-house solutions. The process is made incredibly simple; users use their phone to scan their ID, followed by a selfie to confirm that it matches the ID; an AI-based solution looks for a match while also ensuring that the ID is authentic and that the image does not include anything unsettling.   

Deep Learning and architectures like Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are promising technologies for data authentication processes.

Fraud prevention is another critical area in which machine learning can have a significant impact.  Increasing e-commerce popularity, the volume of online transactions, and third-party integrations have all contributed to an exponential growth of fraud cases in recent years.

The potential severity of the effect is revealed by a 

, "card-based payment systems worldwide incurred gross fraud losses of $28.65 billion in 2019, equating to 6.8 for every $100 of total volume." Organizations have historically employed sets of hardcoded rules created by subject-matter experts to combat fraud.

Now the risk comes from fraudsters learning the rules and then being able to abuse the system. AI-based solutions, on the other hand, can change over time and adjust to new patterns discovered in the data, as a countermeasure.  Algorithm filters through tens of thousands of transaction-related information like the client's location, historical behaviour, and spending habits.  Although many conventional machine learning methods, like logistic regression, support vector machines, and decision trees, may currently deliver acceptable performance, the market is continually seeking advancements and this ushered in sophisticated algorithms that are better suited for handling enormous amounts of data (both the number of observations and potential features).

AI improves the payment process and access to credit by customers.  This article explores these roles further.

Exploring the development of Technology and Traditional Finance on the Continent 

AI will play a key role in the future of Banking and payment in Africa.  We explore three core areas of the Banking process AI is changing the landscape.

Finance x TEch

A critical Survey of Nigeria's economic outlook by the International Monetary Fund 

A meeting was held in Washington, DC from June 6-10, 2022 by Ms Jesmin Rahman from the IMF team with the Nigerian Authorities on the recent economic and financial developments and the economic outlook of the country. Ms Rahman made the following statement during the visit:

"Inflation has reached 17.7% (y/y) in May led by a renewed surge in food prices, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and raising food security concerns as over 40% of the population live below the poverty line. To contain inflationary pressures, the Central Bank of Nigeria has recently hiked its monetary policy rate by 150 basis points to 13%.

Economic recovery continues to gain strength on the back of services and agriculture with GDP growth reaching 3.6% (y/y) in Q1 2022. The latest data shows economic growth broadening to all sectors except oil, where production remains weak reflecting continued security and technical challenges.

Regarding the external sector, the current account deficit narrowed significantly in 2021 helped by import compression and a higher net oil balance. However, the improving trade balance, which has continued so far in 2022, is having a limited impact on Foreign Exchange (FX) strains with the exchange rate premiums in the parallel market staying in the 35-40% range since October 2021. Despite supportive oil prices, gross FX reserves fell to $38.6 billion at the end-May of 2022, having reached $41.5 billion in September 2021 boosted by SDR allocation and Eurobond issuance.

Regarding the economic outlook, GDP growth is projected at 3.4% (y/y) in 2022 while inflation is expected to remain elevated. The fiscal deficit of the Consolidated Government is expected to remain high at 6.1% of GDP due in great measure to costly petrol subsidies and limited tax revenue collections. Downside risks in the near term arise from further deterioration of security conditions, elections, low vaccination against Covid-19 and higher global interest rates. On the upside, steady private sector recovery and further broadening of growth, the start of operations at the Dangote refinery and decisive steps to mobilize revenues, in line with the Strategic Revenue Growth Initiative (SRGI) could spur inclusive growth and development".

At the end of the meeting, the IMF team appreciated the authorities and other participants present for their open and thoughtful discussions and excellent cooperation.

Nigerian Stock Market ends the first half of 2022 as one of the best in the world

The Nigerian All Share Index closed the first half of 2022 with a gain of about 21.17% year to date (YTD) making it one of the best-performing stock markets in the world.

Global equities markets have had to stomach a rout as investors react to higher interest rates as central banks prioritise combating inflation over easy money. In the United States, the S&P Index which measures the broader stock market has fallen by as much as 20% this year. Over in Europe, the London FTSE is down by about 3% while the German DAX is down by a whopping 19.3%.

 Nigeria lost $1 billion in Q1 revenue to crude oil theft

Nigeria lost $1 billion in revenue during the first quarter of this year due to crude oil theft, the petroleum regulator said on Friday. Nigeria loses millions of barrels of crude oil a year because of theft and vandalism including the tapping of crude from a maze of pipelines owned by oil majors, underscoring how poor security causes vast financial losses for the country.

Gbenga Komolafe, the head of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, said of the 141 million barrels of oil produced in the first quarter of 2022, only about 132 million barrels of oil were received at export terminals.

 Crisis-hit Ghana changes its mind and turns to IMF for help

Ghana, one of West Africa's largest economies, will hold formal talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a support package, the government said on Friday, after hundreds took to the streets to protest against mounting hardship. The cabinet gave its support for the decision at a meeting on Thursday, following a phone conversation between President Nana Akufo-Addo and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Ghana has until Friday refused to seek IMF support to rescue an economy crippled by the pandemic, rampant inflation and a depreciating currency, despite analysts warning it is close to a debt crisis.

Nollywood, Nigeria’s movie industry is the second-largest movie industry in the world in terms of output. It produces about 2,500 movies annually, second only to India’s Bollywood.

 is often regarded as one of the greatest movies of all time and is still a banger. It is based on a Stephen King novella ‘Rita Hayworth and Shawshank Redemption. This drama film is ultimately about crime, friendship, prisons, and redemption. Check it out!

“If opportunity doesn't knock, build a door”- Milton Berle

In this issue, we explore the IMF's survey of the Nigerian economy and the future prospects of the Nigerian Economy

The IMF reviews Nigeria's economic performance

The IMF, issued a report, a critical review of the Nigerian economy and its performance in H1 2022

Issue #70: A critical survey

Insurtech: Rebranding of the Insurance Business

Insurance focused on indemnifying customers against probable risks to reduce the losses per peradventure that occur. Insurance is one of the living parts of finance with the first written insurance policy more than 4000 years ago. However, a revolution surfaced in the industry when Insurtech was born in 2010. Believed to be a subset of fintech, it involves the incorporation of technology into the insurance business. With the adoption of eCommerce technology, big data, IoT connectivity, artificial intelligence, CRM and consumer-facing apps, it has emerged with a variety of business models, products and services to challenge insurance industry incumbents.

Unlike traditional finance focused on those with deep pockets and long experience in the market, Insurtech focus on the creation of innovative products launching which are more customer-centric, allowing micro-payments, flexible sign-ups, and access to a wide range of services through mobile phones. 

reported that “Competition among players has already led to significant innovation and disruption in the African insurance market, with insurers leveraging technology to target specific segments or services and cut costs. Due to continuous high momentum and attention garnered from venture capital and established managers, the global Insurtech market is expected to grow 41% annually between 2019 and 2023. According to Deloitte’s estimation, Insurtech start-ups, have attracted $16.5bn in investment in the past decade.

With a penetration rate of less than 3%, the African insurance market is very immature compared to the global average of 7.23%. However, it is considered a promising one by insurers, reinsurers, and venture capitalists. Considering the growing population of Africa with 60% of the entire continent aged below 25, it is considered the youngest continent in the world. This makes life expectancy high. Also, more property is expected to be acquired by the young populace hence, a good market for the Insurance business.

 remains the leading country of the Sub-Sahara with a penetration rate of 16.99% (as of 2017), the rate of penetration of the continent is still dragged down by other countries with penetration rates below 5%. South Africa.

While opportunities abound for venturing into this region, the following conditions have to be fulfilled for the successful development of Insurtech:

Insurtech solutions will improve access to affordable Insurance coverage in Africa 

Insurtech across the Continent will improve access to much-needed insurance coverage by consumers in Africa.  This article covers the numbers and growth trajectory of Insurtech on the African Continent

U.S. citizens pay many taxes, ranging from Federal to State, sales and property, excise and estate, etcetera and etcetera. Ask Brother Taiye who lives in New Jersey, he’ll update you!

The gas tax, an excise tax is one of those taxes. As the name implies, it is levied on gasoline and is primarily meant for fixing highways and developing infrastructure in the U.S. It is charged by both the Federal government and all the states. Add to the 18.4 cents ($0.184) charged by the Federal government, and all states in the country levy an average of 31.02 cents on gasoline.

However, last week, U.S. President Joe Biden asked for the approval of a 3-month gas tax holiday through September. He called for the suspension of the 18.4 cents tax and charged states to do likewise to alleviate the financial distress of U.S. citizens in this period typified by inflation.

Recall that three weeks ago, U.S. CPI data for May revealed a 40-year high inflation rate of 8.6%. However, that’s not the big story here. The fact that energy prices rose 34.6% to average about $5 per gallon to fuel the inflation is a cause for alarm. This shows that U.S. energy consumers are directly feeling the heat of the surge in crude oil prices (unlike Nigeria, where our government is pampering us with subsidies).

   Source: U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics

Summer Driving Season- kindly fill my tank!

The U.S. Summer Driving Season is a period between Memorial Day in late May, and Labour Day in early September. It depicts the surge in consumer demand for fuel in the summer.

The U.S. Summer Driving Season, which has seen consumer demand skyrocket has contributed to the spike in gasoline prices. However, don’t put all the blame on this fella. Other factors like the surging prices of crude oil, post-COVID bounce back of U.S. activities, and the closure of refineries amongst others have all contributed to gasoline prices peaking.

Biden is asking Congress to approve a 3-month Federal tax holiday to provide families with some relief- not like it will fix the inherent problems for a long time. Economists claim that a gas tax holiday is very unlikely to lower overall inflation rates and suggest increased supply instead.

While the move may alleviate suffering, from a political perspective, Biden may be doing all these to increase the Democrats’ chances of retaining congressional power in this year’s November 8 elections. However, Biden’s bubble burst as lawmakers in both Democratic and Republican parties have opposed the move saying retailers would pocket much of the savings

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Finally, while the gas tax holiday would provide only a “

”, according to Peter DeFazio, the house committee on Transportation chair, it will cost the Highway Trust Fund roughly 

 in foregone tax revenue and may reduce energy inflation month-on-month. The brightest option is therefore to boost U.S. energy production by strengthening policies and encouraging producers and refiners.

China Strengthens Ties with Nigeria, Unveils New Association

A new association, Nigeria Anhui Entrepreneurs Association has been unveiled to deepen Nigeria- China relationship. The association was officially inaugurated by the Consul General of the People’s Republic of China, Chu Maoming at an elaborate ceremony in Lagos, recently.

The association’s Chairman, Wu Da Yang restated that move was thought of to further promote economic and trade exchanges between China and Nigeria. He said, “With the new group, we hope to have improved and stronger affairs with Nigeria, and strengthen relationships among members and clients, fostering unity, understanding, social progress and mutual assistance between the two countries.

Naira gains as Buhari rules out quick unification of rates

President Muhammadu Buhari has said his administration cannot unify the naira exchange rates. The President said this in a written response to Bloomberg after his government did not heed calls from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank to unify the exchange rates at the official and parallel markets. “The exchange rate is still susceptible to external shocks that can suddenly and severely affect Nigerian citizens,” President Buhari said. He said the country will move toward unification only after raising domestic production of refined fuel and food, and importing items largely responsible for foreign exchange shortages.  

El Salvador’s $425 million bitcoin experiment isn’t saving the country’s finances

During the latter months of 2021, El Salvador shocked the world by choosing to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender. El Salvador is a country whose economic growth has been stunted, its budget deficits remain high, and its debt-to-GDP ratio is set to hit 87% this year, fueling concerns of a possible default on its debt obligations.

The country’s crypto reserves have lost more than half of their value as the price of bitcoin has fallen more than 70% from its November 2021 peak, and more than 55% from the time the country’s President, Nayib Bukele announced his plan.

 Negotiations with the IMF, in an effort to secure a $1.3 billion loan, have soured over the country’s refusal to ditch the cryptocurrency.

’ actually mean two different things. The United Kingdom incorporates England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Island, while Great Britain refers only to the island of England, Scotland, and Wales.

 featuring Timini Egbuson is one to watch this week. The dramedy was one of the highest-grossing 2021 Nollywood movies, grossing ₦88 million in total, and making over ₦10 million in its opening weekend. It was however released on Netflix on June 10, 2022. Check it out!

“Create the highest, grandest vision possible for your life because you become what you believe”- Oprah Winfrey

Gas Taxes increase the cost of Gas.  Removing such taxes could ease inflation pressure.

Into the deep end as Energy prices show no signs of retreating

In this issue of the FPN Newsletter, we reviewed Nigerian strengthened ties with China and we explore the impacts of Gas taxes on local energy prices in the US.

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Issue #71: Can OPEC stem the rising Crude Prices?

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Issue #70: A critical survey

Finance x TEch

FPN Newsletter Issue #69: Energy Prices and the death of Gas taxes